Is the U.S. tilting towards the Shiites?
Had that thought this evening that is almost too preposterous to seriously contemplate, though the more I ponder it, the more it yields to some kind of bizarre logic.
Consider: We originally supported Sadaam in the 80s as a bulwark against the Shiite Iranians, who were then the foe d'jour, having kidnapped our embassy employees and murdered 241 Marines in Lebanon. The Sunnis we could deal with, having cut a peace deal with Egypt and nurtured stable alliances with the Gulf States, principally Saudi Arabia.
Heck, a big part of Sadaam's
causus belli with Kuwait was their insistence that Iraq repay loans make by Kuwait after the Iraq-Iran War tilted in favor of the Iranains. Kuwait and ther other Gulf States feared a Shiite state on their border, and Sadaam was all that stood in the way of that fear. All the Gulf states poined up to Iraq for defense costs; Kuwait was one of the few to insist on repayment, for which they were repaid by temporarily becoming the 19th province. I digress.
The Soviet debacle in Afghanistan showed us the power of the Sunni Mujahideen, which, in a classic case of blowback, was eventually aimed at us, finally through 9/11. Though the Shiites were formerly considered the Islamic "fundamentalists", suddenly they seemed like mere Pentacostalists, speaking in tongues and other rhapsodic ecstasies, while the Wahabbi brand of Sunni fundamentalism was a classic Tim McVeigh. Plus, the Wahabbis took this
umma stuff far more seriously than the Shiites, which had taken it too seriously for our tastes. And they had petrodollars.
But still the longstanding relationship with the Saudis seemed too solid to question. Bandar bin Sultan's largesse had reached many pockets, and our bases there seemed irreplaceable as part of the forward deployment doctrine.
But now that feared Shiite republic, or at least a federal Shiite province, is ready to be established on the Saudi doorstep. And at least one of the Bush Adminisrtations- the Pentagon one, seems not to care. Heck, they even installed a Shiite, albeit a Westernized one, Ahmed Chalabi, as their guy in Iraq. And sympathy for the Saudis' plight is in short supply these days, not to mention the fact that we finally have some other options for forward deployment.
We know that at least
some at the Pentagon fantasize about invading the Saudi peninsula, but that would be too much even for this taboo breaking crowd, given their "ally" status. So we tolerate what was unthinkable - a Shiite presence on the border. In the past, Shiites were considered to destabilizing to the Saudis' Shiite minority. Now we look at it like mob goons do to the one store on the block that doesn't pay protection - "be a damn shame if a fire broke out here next week."
At least that's what it looks like. And it is playing with fire, as Shiites who aren't named Chalabi are hardly fans of American exceptionalims, other than the "Great Satan" variety. On the other hand, Hezbollah, the Shiite "terrorist" group, does generally confine itself to military targets. In any event, this preposterous idea will likely be disproven shortly, though I haven't seen the evidence of yet.